Manager, Business Intelligence (Outlooks & Scenario Planning)

Job Purpose

Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks to inform strategic planning, capital allocation and business growth strategies, and safeguard long-term value by preparing ADNOC Gas for uncertainty and multiple future worlds.

Key Accountabilities

• Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks that feed the Strategic Plan and capital allocation.

• Develop macroeconomic and sector-level scenario models evaluating future energy trends, risks and opportunities under multiple transition pathways.

• Perform integrated portfolio and P&L stress-testing to assess ADNOC Gas’s resilience and agility under different market and policy environments.

• Lead initial high-level financial and economic modelling (CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities) for new growth opportunities, ensuring alignment with corporate value-creation targets.

Assess external and internal strategic drivers and translate their implications into actionable insight for the long-term Strategic Plan.

• Interface with ADNOC Upstream and DM&T on plans, profiles and demand forecasts, and assess the impact of Gas Masterplan alignment.

• Build, lead and develop the business intelligence and scenario planning team, with emphasis on UAE National development in line with Emiratisation targets.

• Building a credible long-range outlook capability from a standing start, in a first-of-its-kind function, while the IGP operating model is still being stood up.
• Producing outlooks that remain robust across 5 to 25 years without drifting into unusable theory – every scenario must translate into a decision signal.
• Holding the boundary with the Planning & Value Chain Optimization mandate: this role uses portfolio results for stress-testing; it does not optimize assets.
• Securing consistent input data and assumptions from ADNOC Upstream, DM&T, Marketing and Finance across entity boundaries.
• Earning executive trust fast – outputs go directly to EXCOM and the CEO dialogue with ADNOC.One agreed set of long-term outlook assumptions used across ADNOC Gas, replacing competing versions.
• Develop a living scenario model that senior leadership actually runs decisions through.
• Develop Early-warning signals and strategic guardrails accepted and used by the other IGP mandates.
• Develop Strong influence without authority across divisions and Group entities.
•Develop a high-calibre team and ensure retaintion of the team

Minimum Requirements

• Bachelors degree wiht 12 and more years of experience , with at least 5 in long-range outlook, scenario planning, business intelligence or corporate and strategic planning in oil and gas, LNG, petrochemicals or energy consulting. Prior line-management experience required.
• LONG-TERM OUTLOOK & SCENARIO MODELLING – proven ownership of 5 to 25 year market, demand, supply and price outlooks and multi-pathway scenario sets used for real corporate decisions.
• GAS / LNG / NGL VALUE CHAIN DEPTH – genuine command of gas and LNG market structure, contracting and the economics that move them.
• FINANCIAL & ECONOMIC MODELLING – CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities and P&L stress-testing at portfolio level; able to build and defend the model, not just read it.
• EXECUTIVE COMMUNICATION – track record of turning analysis into board and EXCOM-ready recommendations; excellent structured written and spoken English.
• CROSS-FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE & TEAM LEADERSHIP – evidence of securing data, assumptions and alignment across divisions and separate legal entities without direct authority, plus building and developing a specialist team.
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